Deep Sleeper Alert! Cincinnati Bengals WR Auden Tate “came alive” following the departure of QB Andy Dalton (thumb). Backup quarterback Jeff Driskell targeted Tate early and often. Unfortunately the 7 targets only led to 2 catches for 15 yards. If AJG is indeed out again this week, he could be in line for more targets. He is a complete punt play in DFS, but you could certainly do worse.
This week I decided to do something a little bit different. We have been talking about the Sports Sabermetrics Start/Sit app all season. It is currently free to use for the last few weeks of the season so everyone can see just how effective it is! Im going to go through the weeks matchups to show you how to use it.
To start you can find it here: http://sportssabermetrics.net/advanced-start-sit-app/
This off-season with the help of the team here I developed a way to rapidly evaluate a given match-up.
- My Fantasy League: Utilizing the API from MFL I can access the season cumulative rank for a teams offense and defense for passing and rushing.
- Pass Match-up: This is the teams offensive passing rank compared to the opposing teams defensive passing rank. It is adjusted to scale from 0 to 100.
- Rush Match-up: This is the teams offensive rushing rank compared to the opposing teams defensive rushing rank. Similarly adjusted.
- Implied Game Total: Ever wondered how analysts come up with these? We are pulling the Weekly spreads from Vegas and the O/U’s (Westgate). That’s all you need.
Finding a Poor match-up:
This is a gross match-up if I have ever seen one. Two of the worst teams in the NFL going head to head. Some takeaways from only the image:
- The O/U is only 40 points this is the lowest game total for the week. You likely don’t want any offensive weapons in this game.
- Both teams are weak at QB and the low implied game total tells you that both defenses are viable streaming options
- The only Match-up score in the green is the Bills rushing… With this likely being a low scoring defensive game McCoy is a viable start. He is only $5700 on FanDuel.
Identifying a Prime Match-up:
At this point basically any Chiefs game is a prime match-up, but its still worth mentioning as a perfect example of how to use the metrics we have developed. So what makes this a no brainer per the metrics?
- It has the highest over under of the week at 55.5! There is going to be a ton of points scored.
- The Chiefs are the 15 point favorites which is the largest lead of the week projected by Vegas. Implied game total is 35 to 20!
- Basically everyone is a start on the Chiefs with the high Rush/Pass Match-up scores. Harrison Butker would be a great start here with the high game total, but he is $4900 on FanDuel. Patrick Mahomes is a clear start here (Duh..) and likely the QB1, but he is $9500 on FanDuel. He will probably still be cash viable because he is incredible. If you continue down the list Kareem Hunt ($8900) and Tyreek Hill ($8400) are too expensive for me, but will be safe cash options for guaranteed points. If I am going to spend up anywhere on this game it is for Travis Kelce. He is the most expensive TE this week at $7800, but with how difficult to project the position has been I am willing to pay up in cash. Tough to pass up on a practically guaranteed 2.0x player at the most volatile position.
- The Raiders have a good passing match-up score. With no clear cut WR1 following the departure of Amari Cooper and the fact that the Raiders are terrible and will be playing from behind we should see a lot of short passes to Jared Cook. At his price point $6200 I would likely go with a cheaper option
Be sure to hit me up @ maatspencer onTwitter with any questions. We will be releasing more match-up analysis as the week goes on.
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